The world of college football is abuzz with a question that has many fans and analysts intrigued: Are upsets in the FCS vs. Power Four era a thing of the past? In this article, we'll delve into this intriguing topic, exploring the factors that have led to a potential extinction of these once-annual surprises and the potential for a drought-breaking upset in the 2026 season.
The Widening Gap
The gap between the FBS and FCS divisions has been steadily widening, and the impact of the transfer portal and NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) era cannot be overstated. FCS programs are finding it increasingly difficult to retain their top talent, with many players opting to make the jump to the FBS level. This talent drain has resulted in a significant shift in the competitive balance, as evidenced by the impressive win records of FBS power conference teams against FCS opponents.
A Rare Phenomenon
FCS upsets over Power Four opponents have always been rare, but they were once a beloved annual tradition in college football. The last such upset occurred in 2023, when Sacramento State stunned Stanford. Since then, two full seasons have passed without another upset, leading many to wonder if this phenomenon is truly extinct.
The Talent Drain
The talent drain from the FCS to the FBS is a major factor in the widening gap. Sacramento State's departure to the FBS in 2026 is a prime example, and they aren't alone. North Dakota State, another successful FCS program, is also making the jump. Jacksonville State, which made the move in 2023, had a strong record against FBS opponents, including wins over Ole Miss and Florida State.
Breaking the Streak
Breaking the current streak of Power Four dominance will require a near-perfect alignment of factors and a bit of luck for the FCS side. With over 120 FBS vs. FCS matchups on the 2026 schedule, there are certainly opportunities, especially with 11 preseason top-25 FCS teams facing Power Four opponents.
Potential Shockers
Here are six games in the 2026 season that could potentially end the drought and provide the long-awaited upset:
- No. 3 South Dakota State at Northwestern: South Dakota State, a two-time FCS national champion, faces a Northwestern team that has experienced FCS upsets in the past. With quarterback Chase Mason returning from injury, the Jackrabbits could pose a serious threat.
- No. 9 Youngstown State at Kentucky: The Will Stein era at Kentucky could start with a bang or a bust. Youngstown State brings back Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard, a dual-threat quarterback who can make this game uncomfortable for the Wildcats.
- No. 10 North Dakota at Nebraska: North Dakota nearly pulled off an upset at Nebraska in 2022, and with dual-threat quarterback Jerry Kaminski and edge rusher Lance Rucker, they could cause problems for the Huskers if they're not careful.
- No. 14 Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State: Mississippi State, under Jeff Lebby, could be a team on the rise, but with a tough schedule and the potential for a late-season letdown, Tennessee Tech could be a dangerous opponent.
- No. 17 Austin Peay at Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt, coming off a breakthrough season, faces a potential step back without quarterback Diego Pavia. Austin Peay, led by Walter Payton Award finalist Chris Parson, has the firepower to make this a challenging game.
- No. 22 Monmouth at West Virginia: Monmouth has a history of giving Group of Six teams a run for their money, and with a revamped West Virginia roster under Rich Rodriguez, this could be the perfect opportunity for an upset.
Deeper Analysis
The potential for an upset in these games goes beyond the simple outcome. It represents a challenge to the established order and a reminder that, in the world of college football, anything can happen. These games showcase the resilience and talent of FCS programs and the ever-present potential for an upset that can shake up the college football landscape.
Conclusion
While the odds may be stacked against FCS upsets, the 2026 season offers a glimmer of hope for those who crave the unexpected. These six potential shockers provide a thrilling narrative, a reminder that college football is a sport where tradition meets unpredictability. Will we witness history in the making, or will the Power Four dominance continue? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the world of college football will be watching with bated breath.
